Balancing Act with India
With the aim of improving Burma’s bilateral relationship with India, the Burmese President Thein Sein is scheduled to begin a three-day visit from Oct. 12 to 15. Sein, a former military general, visited India in November 2008 as prime minister under the military junta of the State Peace and Development Council.
Thein Sein’s first visit as president of a nominal civilian government is significant for two important reasons. First, the new government, although still dominated by former military generals, is seeking to improve its international image by pursuing democratic reforms.
Second, the Burmese government apparently irked the Chinese government, India’s traditional rival, by halting a $3.6 billion hydroelectric project in Kachin state, a surprise announcement made on Sept. 30.
The two countries are expected to sign bilateral agreements, and discuss a wide range of issues, including insurgency problems in Northeast India. Nay Pyi Taw is also expected to seek New Delhi’s recognition, if not support, ofr its democratic reform process. India has invested in technology and transportation developmental projects, with a target of US$3 billion bilateral trade by 2015.
Whenever a high profile Burmese official visits India, traditionally three major types of events are anticipated: protests by Burmese exiles in New Delhi; a curiosity as to what significant development may emerge from the bilateral talk, and what implication(s) it might have for Burma-China relations.
The visit comes at a time when there are glimmers of hope for democratic change in Burma under the Union Solidarity and Development Party. The visit is considered mutually beneficial and important for the two nations to strengthen their strategic partnership.
Ahead of this high-level visit, the two countries have engaged in a series of low-level official meetings. At the request of the Indian government, the Burmese army, in the first week of September, attacked the camps of Northeast Indian insurgents based in Sagaing Division, Northwest Burma.
The Indian government anticipates a security agreement under which a joint military operation can be launched to dismantle these camps and destroy these insurgents. India hopes to reach a deal with Burma, similar to the agreements reached with Bangladesh and Bhutan, to launch major military operations.
Under the aegis of its look-east policy, India’s policy toward Burma has changed significantly—from support for the pro-democracy movement to engaging a pro-military government. The policy shift began during the Congress government of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao in 1991, and augmented by the Bhartiya Janata Party government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004).
India has been criticized by the Burmese opposition and Western democracies for not speaking up on human rights and democratic reforms.There are glimmers of hope for democratic change in Burma.
The salient features of Indian foreign policy vis-à-vis Burma can be summarized under three main subjects: seeking Burma’s help in suppressing insurgency problems in Northeast India, to counter China’s growing influence in the region, and to expand its international market in Southeast Asia via Burma.
By engaging Burma, India plans to maximize its security and national interest. Burma, the only Southeast Asian country to share 1,643 kilometers boundary in four Northeast Indian states and a maritime boundary, serves as India’s gateway to the other 10-member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Because of Burma’s strategic location and proximity to China, it is crucial for India to befriend Burma.
While the Western democracies see some signs of democratic reforms and begin to cautiously appreciate the Burmese government, it is important for the world’s largest democratic nation to demonstrate its support for human rights and democratic reforms, besides other interests.
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